数据处理方法对中国区域平均降水序列精度的影响     

战云健  任国玉  王朋岭 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(6):584-595

利用地面观测站点资料研究大范围地区的降水长期变化规律,选取不同的指标会使分析结果出现显著差异。利用中国大陆区域内2139个国家站的逐日降水资料,比较不同数据处理方法得到全国和中国西部、中国东部地区的降水量、降水日数和降水强度的区域平均时间序列,探讨对其变化趋势估算的偏差。研究表明,1951—1957年估算的中国区域平均降水量原始值出现虚假的偏高,使趋势估算出现较大误差;1951—2016年中国西部地区平均降水量距平百分率时间序列的波动幅度显著偏大;区域平均降水量、降水日数和降水强度的距平和标准化距平序列较为可信。全国平均降水量、降水日数的原始值和距平值序列都基本反映了中国东部湿润地区降水的变化,降水量距平百分率的变化主要由西部干燥区域的降水变化构成,降水量标准化距平则可综合反映湿润和干燥地区的降水变化。  相似文献   

区域性地震安全性评价发展现状与定位初探     

黎益仕  吴健  赵凤新 《震灾防御技术》2022,17(3):606-610

对区域性地震安全性评价的产生背景进行回顾,系统地梳理相关制度建设和业务开展的基本现状,总结在属性定位、推进力度、技术要求和监管力度等方面存在的主要问题,并对基本原因进行分析,提出区域性地震安全性评价的属性定位设计和在抗震设防要求管理体系中的位置,以期为深化改革和加快制度建设提供参考。  相似文献   

Investigating the applicability of a standardised growth curve approach on Middle Pleistocene sediments from northern Switzerland     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

The introduction of the Single Aliquot Regenerative Dose (SAR) protocol established luminescence dating as an indispensable tool in Quaternary research. A major impediment of this technique is the time required for measurements, since the protocol is repeated for various aliquots of each sample to establish a sound statistical basis. To reduce the demand on machine time, Standardised Growth Curve (SGC) approaches have been developed and successfully applied for samples from some regions. However, differences in luminescence properties require careful testing of this techniques when applied to samples with other geological background.In this study, the application of the SGC approach of Li et al. (2016) is successfully verified for multi-grain aliquots of coarse-grained quartz and feldspar samples from three sites in northern Switzerland. In-depth quality control measures ensure the reproducibility of equivalent dose (D_e) values obtained by the common SAR protocol and sample-specific SGCs. For both minerals little sensitivity was found to the re-normalisation dose and the sample-specific SGCs performed well. In contrast to other studies, no different types of dose response curve shape were observed for quartz. A minimum number of full SAR measurements of eight and six aliquots per sample has been found appropriate for quartz and feldspar, respectively. For the fading corrected feldspar signals, site-specific SGC worked well and D_e values of up to 800 Gy were consistently replicated.In summary, sample-specific SGCs for samples from northern Switzerland perform well and their application reduces measurement times by up to 70%. The construction of a regional SGC may well be beneficial, however, caution regarding the choice of given doses and curve fitting is recommended and a thorough verification of SGC results is needed before the technique is widely applied.  相似文献   

碳酸盐岩常用主微量元素、同位素分析测试结果差异性探讨: 基于川中下寒武统龙王庙组实例研究^*          下载免费PDF全文

刘大卫  蔡春芳  扈永杰  姜磊  李睿  何宏  王石  彭燕燕  魏天媛  柳其源 《古地理学报》2022,24(3):524-539

碳酸盐岩研究中存在多种微量元素、同位素测试方法,为进一步探究各测试手段实际获取地化信息之间是否存在差异?能否进行比对?以川中下寒武统龙王庙组碳酸盐岩样品为例,通过对比研究中常用的主微量元素测试(电子探针[EPMA]、激光剥蚀—等离子质谱[LA-ICP-MS]、溶液法微量[ICP-OES])、氧同位素测定(原位离子探针[in-situ SIMS]、酸溶粉末)结果,揭示讨论各测试结果的差异性,旨在为降低地化信息的多解性提供经验依据。研究发现: (1)各测试手段(EPMA、LA-ICP-MS、ICP-OES)之间的差异性客观存在,但测试结果偏差整体随着所测元素实际浓度的增高而降低。对于主量元素(>10%)各测试结果偏差小于2%;富集元素(>1000 μg/g)各测试结果处于测试误差之内,结果偏差小于6%;微量元素浓度区间(100~1000 μg/g)各测试结果偏差显著增大,并且LA-ICP-MS与ICP-OES结果偏差要小于LA-ICP-MS与EPMA结果偏差,前者偏差幅度由6%增至45%,后者偏差幅度由9.1%增至151%;在低于100 μg/g元素浓度区间,受矿物内非均质性影响LA-ICP-MS与ICP-OES的测试结果可相差几倍。(2)微区原位限定下,EPMA测试结果在邻近检测线区间(100~300 μg/g)与LA-ICP-MS结果偏差逐渐加大,推测此偏差变化是由EPMA结果矫正过程中对低含量元素的矫正补偿机制所造成。(3)in-situ SIMS氧同位素值揭示了矿物微区尺度上的 δ¹⁸O 值差异,但其整体测试结果与传统酸溶法测试的结果存在0.5‰~2.5‰ V-PDB的负偏偏差,推测此偏差可能来自于标样矫正转换误差。(4)实例样品中可见阴极发光特征与Fe、Mn含量无关的现象,故成岩流体判定更需结合岩石学、地化证据探讨。  相似文献   

云南牟定县戌街晶质石墨矿特征及找矿标志     

梁刚  李灿清  杨宇  骆怀鹏 《云南地质》2021,(1):98-103

云南牟定县戌街石墨矿矿体形态多呈层状、似层状,主要赋存于前震旦系苴林群普登组第二段第三层(Pt p^2-3)中,矿体产状与地层产状基本一致。矿石工业类型为细鳞片晶质石墨矿,矿床成因属区域(沉积)变质型矿床,地层层位和特征变质矿物组合是主要找矿标志。  相似文献   

基于后向轨迹的秋冬季漯河重污染输送及典型个例分析     

武威  单铁良 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(3):65-74

利用常规气象数据、颗粒物观测数据、全球大气同化系统GDAS数据、NCEP再分析资料、ERA5再分析资料等,结合数理统计、轨迹聚类、天气学分析等方法对2015—2019年秋冬季漯河重污染特征、污染输送及潜在源区分布进行分析,并通过一次典型重污染个例进行证明。结果表明:近5 a秋冬季漯河重污染过程发生频次高、持续时间长、污染程度重,AQI、PM_(2.5)变化趋势不明显,PM_(10)浓度下降趋势明显,PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)比值逐年递增,以PM_(2.5)重污染为主。秋冬季漯河主要有6种气团输送路径,东北路、偏东路轨迹短、移速慢且高度低,近距离近地层污染输送特征明显,为重要重污染通道;西北路远距离下沉沉降输送和西南轨迹近距离输送下的AQI均值及重污染概率较低,对漯河重污染贡献不高。漯河潜在源区来源复杂、范围广、强度大,其污染潜在源主要分布在河南中东部、尤其是东北部,对应东北路径、偏东路径等气团轨迹。重污染时地面偏北风是其主导风,尤其是2—4 m·s^(-1)之间偏北到东北风最为显著。两次跨区域输送表明,北路或东北路近地层输送是AQI峰值维持发展的重要原因。  相似文献   

对基于RegCM4降尺度的中国区域性暴雨事件模拟评估     

蔡怡亨  韩振宇  周波涛 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(4):420-429

基于区域气候模式RegCM4对4个全球气候模式动力降尺度模拟（分别记为CdR、EdR、HdR、MdR）以及高分辨率格点观测数据CN05.1的日降水数据,利用“追踪式”客观识别方法,对1981—2005年中国区域性暴雨事件进行了识别,并评估了模式对其气候特征的模拟性能。结果表明：4个动力降尺度模拟以及多模式集合能较好地模拟区域性暴雨事件发生频次、平均持续时间、平均降水量、平均影响范围和综合强度的年内分布特征以及气候平均值。观测的区域性暴雨事件持续时间、平均降水量、平均影响范围和综合强度在不同区间的频率分布特征以及区域性暴雨事件的累计频次、累计持续时间和累计降水量的空间分布特征也能得到很好地再现。模拟值与观测的空间相关系数都在0.9以上,且均方根误差不超过0.4。不过,相对而言,模式模拟的区域性暴雨事件频次略少,主要由对中度区域性暴雨事件低估所致;模拟的平均持续时间和平均降水量略偏高,而平均影响范围略偏小。综合强度方面,除HdR外,其余模拟均有所高估,尤其是MdR。在频率分布特征和空间分布方面,CdR的模拟性能低于其他模拟。多模式集合模拟的平均持续时间、平均降水量、平均影响范围和综合强度的相对误差分别为13%、2%、-11%和3%。  相似文献   

1961—2019年河南秋季连阴雨天气气候特征分析     

杜明哲  鲁坦  朱玉周  廖荣伟  房小怡 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(4):54-62

利用河南省103个地面气象站1961-2019年逐日资料,采用滑动平均、小波分析、EOF分解等方法分析了河南区域性秋季连阴雨降水的时空分布特征,采用自组织神经网络方法(SOM)对河南区域性秋季连阴雨环流进行客观分型。结果表明：河南区域性秋季连阴雨以7-9 d的过程居多,其次为10 d以上过程。20世纪60年代和80年代是河南区域性秋季连阴雨多发期,90年代为连阴雨少发期,70年代和21世纪10年代发生次数与近59 a年均频次基本持平,21世纪10年代河南区域性秋季连阴雨比其他年代强,20世纪90年代强度最弱。20世纪70年代区域性秋季连阴雨年平均过程降水量存在准5 a周期,21世纪00年代前半期及10年代区域性秋季连阴雨年平均过程降水量存在2-3 a周期。近59 a河南区域性秋季连阴雨平均降水量分布上,黄河以南地区比黄河以北地区降水多,山区比平原地区多,降水大值区与山区分布基本一致。河南区域性秋季连阴雨降水空间分布型上,最主要的特征是全省一致变化型,其次是南北反相型。SOM方法不仅可以区分出环流形态上的差别,还可以区分出环流型的发生时间和连阴雨期间环流的阶段性演变特征。SOM分型得到8类区域性连阴雨环流型,从天气学意义上可归结为阻塞型、低槽型和平直环流型。大部分河南区域性秋季连阴雨过程为2到3种环流型的组合,不同环流型之间存在转换关系。  相似文献   

Numerical and experimental analysis of the static behavior of highly deformed risers     

S.T. Santillan 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(13):1397-1402

This paper models a slender, flexible structure used as a drill string or riser in the offshore oil and gas industry that connects the well-head with a floating control vessel. These systems are used in deep-water drilling applications and present considerable design challenges due to their extreme flexibility and susceptibility to buckling and vibration. Two typical configurations are used (Bai and Bai, 2005), with a common feature involving the attachment of a buoy designed to relieve some of the axial forces acting on the riser, especially at the attachment points. Previous work by the authors studied numerical results of small-amplitude vibrations and two other equilibrium configurations using parameter values that closely resemble the full-scale application (Santillan et al., 2008). Here, two new configurations are considered, and experiments are designed and conducted to verify these equilibrium results.  相似文献   

Bycatch governance and best practice mitigation technology in global tuna fisheries   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Eric L. Gilman 《Marine Policy》2011

Overexploitation of bycatch and target species in marine capture fisheries is the most widespread and direct driver of change and loss of global marine biodiversity. Bycatch in purse seine and pelagic longline tuna fisheries, the two primary gear types for catching tunas, is a primary mortality source of some populations of seabirds, sea turtles, marine mammals and sharks. Bycatch of juvenile tunas and unmarketable species and sizes of other fish in purse seine fisheries, and juvenile swordfish in longline fisheries, contributes to the overexploitation of some stocks, and is an allocation issue. There has been substantial progress in identifying gear technology solutions to seabird and sea turtle bycatch on longlines and to direct dolphin mortality in purse seines. Given sufficient investment, gear technology solutions are probably feasible for the remaining bycatch problems. More comprehensive consideration across species groups is needed to identify conflicts as well as mutual benefits from mitigation methods. Fishery-specific bycatch assessments are necessary to determine the efficacy, economic viability, practicality and safety of alternative mitigation methods. While support for gear technology research and development has generally been strong, political will to achieve broad uptake of best practices has been lacking. The five Regional Fisheries Management Organizations have achieved mixed progress mitigating bycatch. Large gaps remain in both knowledge of ecological risks and governance of bycatch. Most binding conservation and management measures fall short of gear technology best practice. A lack of performance standards, in combination with an inadequate observer coverage for all but large Pacific purse seiners, and incomplete data collection, hinders assessing measures' efficacy. Compliance is probably low due to inadequate surveillance and enforcement. Illegal, unreported and unregulated tuna fishing hampers governance efforts. Replacing consensus-based decision-making and eliminating opt-out provisions would help. Instituting rights-based management measures could elicit improved bycatch mitigation practices. While gradual improvements in an international governance of bycatch can be expected, market-based mechanisms, including retailers and their suppliers working with fisheries to gradually improve practices and governance, promise to be expeditious and effective.  相似文献